Business Sweden's Export Managers' Index (EMI), which monitors views and reflects sentiment among Swedish exporters of goods and services, fell by 1.6 points to 48.8 in the fourth quarter survey, from 50.4 in the previous quarter.
The fact that EMI is below the 50-mark signals that more export companies have a gloomy view of export development. The decline was driven by the EMI current subindex, which fell by 3.6 points to 47.0. At the same time, export managers are cautiously optimistic when assessing future prospects.
The index reflecting views of profitability of export sales in the next three months rose by 4.3 points to 53.5 in the fourth quarter. While views of expected export sales dampened slightly, the index remains high at 60.0 points, indicating strong optimistic sentiment.
A split development can be observed for the regions. The sharp decline in views of expected export demand from Asia in the previous quarter was temporary and made a strong recovery. But concerns are mounting over Western Europe – Sweden's largest export market – where the index fell by 8.8 points to 42.3, signalling a gloomy outlook on demand from this critical region.
Download the report for a full overview of the survey results.
The next Export Managers’ Index will be published on 8 February 2025.
Export manager's index:
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ABOUT THE ANALYSIS
Business Sweden’s Export Managers’ Index is a quarterly index showing the current mood of Swedish exporting companies as well as their near-future outlook for exports to the regions of the world.
The index is a measure of companies’ perceived export demand in the market, where a level above 50 indicates market expansion and a level below 50 indicates market contraction. The index can be split into subindices for current and forecast export demand, and contains information on export sales, expected regional demand and perceived order stock.
The survey is conducted by Statistics Sweden (SCB). Business Sweden’s Export Managers’ Index is a leading indicator of the development of Sweden’s economy.
Publishing dates 2025
Below are the Swedish publishing dates for the EMI report. The English version is available on the website a few days later.
6 February: EMI Q1
8 May: EMI Q2
28 August: EMI Q3
6 November: EMI Q4
Previous analyses
