U.S. trade shifts: From globalisation to onshoring – A decade in the making

Current tariff overview:

America First: Accelerating longstanding trade trends

U.S. trade policy has steadily shifted towards prioritising domestic manufacturing and reducing reliance on global supply chains. While the second Trump administration’s actions may seem abrupt, they reflect a continuation of trends that began after the 2008 financial crisis. Over time, an “America First” agenda has taken root, emphasising onshoring and supply chain security.  

• Obama Administration (2008-2016): Signed several trade agreements (e.g. South Korea, Colombia, Panama) while introducing tax incentives to deter offshoring and filing a record number of WTO complaints – especially against China.  
• First Trump Administration (2016-2020): Imposed broad tariffs, particularly on China, and duties on steel and aluminium to reshore critical industries.  
• Biden Administration (2020-2024): Maintained many of Trump-era tariffs and introduced legislation such as the Inflation Reduction Act, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, and the CHIPS Act – all reinforcing the “Buy American” agenda.  
• Second Trump Administration (current): Policy has intensified with frequent tariff announcements and a stronger focus on economic security, proximity and reduced foreign dependency.  

The WTO and diminishing multilateral influence  

Since 2019, the U.S. has blocked appointments to the WTO Appellate Body, weakening its ability to resolve disputes. This policy has continued under three administrations, reflecting long-term scepticism towards multilateral trade frameworks.  
  

How can Swedish companies take a long-term approach to U.S. trade shifts?  

Swedish companies should reassess their supply chain strategies based on sector-specific risks and incentives in the evolving “Made in USA for USA” landscape:  

• Key sectors   
  Infrastructure, advanced manufacturing, tech, transport, and energy  
  These industries are likely to face sustained tariffs and benefit from U.S.-based production incentives. To stay competitive, companies should:  
  - Evaluate the feasibility of regionalising supply chains within North America.  
  - Compare the benefits of U.S. manufacturing – including tax incentives and tariff avoidance – with the cost advantages of operating in Mexico.  
• Non-priority sectors   
  Textiles, food & beverage, furniture, and chemicals  
  Long-term tariffs appear less likely in these sectors. While short-term trade measures may arise, reshoring has not been a stated priority. Companies should:  
  - Monitor trade policy developments regularly. 
  - Prioritise supply chain adjustments only if tariffs or regulations begin to impact competitiveness.  

By aligning supply chain decisions with sector-specific risks and incentives, Swedish companies can better position themselves for long-term success in the U.S. market.  

What to watch this week  

Reciprocal tariffs are expected to take effect on 2 April. The White House has narrowed its scope, targeting a “dirty 15” group of key trading nations with trade imbalances – including China, Canada, and the EU. Sector-specific tariffs are unlikely in the short term, with exemptions expected to be rare and used to maintain negotiating leverage.

Get in touch

Business Sweden has extensive experience in tariff scenario analyses, localisation evaluations, and supplier assessments. If you need support in assessing your supply chain or navigating the impact of these tariffs on your U.S. operations, please contact Johan Karlberg.

If steel & aluminium tariffs are impacting your business, especially with a local manufacturing footprint in the U.S., please share the details. This information helps Business Sweden and Team Sweden advocate for Swedish businesses in the U.S.

SUBSCRIBE TO OUR U.S. TRADE POLICY BLOG

Stay ahead with the latest insights and updates from Business Sweden’s U.S. blog series.
Click here to subscribe now to receive email notifications for new posts.