Cautious optimism marked the beginning of the year as prospects for global economic recovery looked increasingly promising. President Trump's tariff threats loomed in the background, but few analysts expected that a trade war would escalate so quickly and take centre stage in US politics.
The current unpredictability of global market dynamics makes business strategy and decision-making more challenging than ever – putting a damper on both investments and consumption. Following the already moderate global GDP growth of 2.8 per cent seen in 2024, a setback lies ahead as growth drops to 2.6 per cent in 2025.
Meanwhile, Trump's tariffs will primarily damage the US economy which has prompted a downward revision of the US growth forecast. Growth in Asia continues at pace despite signs of weakness in the Chinese economy and, as such, the region remains an engine for the global economy.
In Europe – where 73 per cent of Swedish exports of goods are destined – emerging optimism can be seen as governments rally together to build a stronger, more competitive Europe and as Germany gets a progressive government firmly in place.
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