Navigating Uncertainty: How to Spot and Seize Business Opportunities

The good news? Those reciprocal tariffs everyone was dreading are now on pause until July. Businesses are catching their breath and adopting that familiar wait-and-see approach while negotiations take the spotlight under these universal tariffs we're all trying to navigate.

Current tariff overview:

1. Tariffs Roll Out During Liberation Day Week

In case you missed it, during Liberation Day week, the U.S. government launched a sweeping 10% tariff on imports from most countries along with the expected reciprocal tariffs on trading partners. The EU initially faced a 20% tariff on steel and aluminium exports and responded with 25% tariffs on €21 billion of American soya beans, diamonds, agricultural products, poultry and motorcycles. . Simultaneously, most imports from China to the U.S. now face a total levy of 145% under the new regime. That’s alongside the withdrawal announced on 2nd May of the de minimis exemption, allowing goods below $800 to enter the U.S. tax free. Beijing responded with 125% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods.

2. Policy Reversal and 90-Day Pause

Just days after implementation, the Trump administration backtracked on parts of its tariff plan, announcing a 90-day pause on the reciprocal tariffs to allow for negotiations. The broad 10% baseline tariff and sector-specific duties remain. Markets reacted sharply, with major indexes rebounding. Despite easing pressure on most trading partners, the U.S. government maintained its firm stance on China. In response, the EU suspended its planned retaliation.

3. Exemptions Announced, Uncertainty Surrounding Semiconductors and Pharmaceuticals

Meanwhile, confusion swirled around electronics tariffs. Though a temporary reprieve was granted for smartphones, computers and other tech hardware, officials clarified these products would shift to a separate semiconductor-related tariff category, expected “in the not-distant future.” President Trump also suggested potential exemptions for auto parts to support domestic manufacturers. At the same time, a group of U.S. small businesses filed a lawsuit arguing the tariffs were implemented without congressional authority. Looking ahead, negotiations, tariff clarifications, and potential new duties on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals remain key areas to watch.

Market Blowback to U.S. Tariffs: Sharp Swings

In early April, sweeping new tariffs triggered uncertainty across global markets. The S&P 500 fluctuated wildly—plunging nearly 6% intraday, surging 10% the next day, then slipping another 3.5%—ending more than 14% below its February peak.

Sector-specific exemptions briefly lifted tech stocks like Apple Inc, but gains quickly faded. European indices posted mid-to-high single-digit losses, while traditional safe havens faltered: the U.S. dollar weakened and Treasury yields remained elevated, reflecting investor anxiety.

Amid the turmoil, business leaders and lawmakers across the U.S. voiced concern. Executives warned of rising recession risks and price hikes, while tensions between industry leaders and trade officials underscored operational uncertainty. On Capitol Hill, bipartisan pushback emerged over the consumer impact and the scope of tariff authority. The Trump administration defended the pause as a strategic step towards fairer trade, though many observers remain skeptical of its long-term effectiveness. 

The 90-Day Pause: A Limited Reprieve

The decision to suspend many levies for 90 days offers breathing space but does not eliminate the underlying policy framework. A baseline 10% tariff on most imports, along with existing auto duties stays in place and the window for negotiating bilateral agreements with more than 70 trading partners is exceptionally tight. Industry groups warn that supply-chain adjustments and contract renegotiations typically span months, not weeks.

As the quarterly earnings season approaches, companies are expected to adopt conservative guidance, and many investors are reallocating portions of their portfolios into investment-grade bonds to hedge against further volatility. The clock is now ticking: unless negotiators secure substantive concessions or a longer-term agreement, markets may face renewed turbulence when the pause expires. 

Seizing Opportunity in The Face Of Uncertainty

Swedish companies can turn today’s tariff-driven uncertainty into a competitive advantage by regionalising their supply chains. Building robust hubs across Europe, the Nordics and strategically selected markets such as North America will highlight Swedish companies’ flexibility and efficiency.

The 90-day U.S. tariff pause also offers Swedish companies a window to solidify partnerships stateside through targeted joint ventures and niche exports, while regional networks ensure resilience against future policy shifts. By combining agile, near-regional sourcing with proactive risk management—hedging currency exposures and cultivating alternative logistics routes—Swedish firms can navigate the current turbulence and emerge better positioned for sustainable, focused growth.

Get in touch

Business Sweden has extensive experience in tariff scenario analyses, localisation evaluations, and supplier assessments. If you need support in assessing your supply chain or navigating the impact of these tariffs on your U.S. operations, please contact Johan Karlberg.

If steel & aluminium tariffs are impacting your business, especially with a local manufacturing footprint in the U.S., please share the details. This information helps Business Sweden and Team Sweden advocate for Swedish businesses in the U.S.

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